Black Swan Management, LLC

–noun

(1) A person who takes an opposing view, esp. one who rejects the majority opinion, as in economic matters.

(2) One who takes a contrary view or action, especially an investor who makes decisions that contradict prevailing wisdom, as in buying securities that are unpopular at the time.

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Good day friends I trade stocks, stock options and commodity options. The key to my success is being a contrarian. The most important part of my strategy is going opposite the masses and being contrary. I don’t run to buy stocks when they are at their all-time highs and I don’t avoid stocks because they are out of favor. They usually exhibit characteristics that enable an investor to achieve the greatest success. Uncertainty in the stock market especially breeds the best opportunities and bodes well for investors with strategies. I recently went against the grain as I usually do. I am currently shorting gold and thinking about doing the same with sugar. These are commodities if you did not know along with many others. I have found that having an intimate knowledge of the commodities market helps you to find more opportunities in the stock market. For instance lets say orange juice futures are at an all time high being contrarian you know that the price of orange juice can’t rise forever armed with this knowledge you can search options chain or sell stocks that will be affected by stocks that a drop in orange juice will directly affect. Truck transporters, o.j. producers and companies that sell to the o.j. producers. If you have knowledge of the commodity market you can’t avoid or capitalize on the ripples that the rise or fall of a certain commodity has on the stock market. More on strategies and strategic responses to market condition in the future. Hang on I am just getting started, success is within your reach.

Keathel H. Haynes III, Chief Investment Officer

http://www.blackswanmanagementllc.com/

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Hi there…..

I wanted to take a second to thank you for visiting our little website, especially the Contrarian Corner. This page is near and dear to us here at Black Swan Management because it speaks to the way we think and the way we do business and invest. So thanks! And on behalf of Black Swan, I hope you find what you’re looking for. I’d love to hear your thoughts on the information presented here. Feel free to shoot me an email at anthony@bettercredit101.com.

If this page isn’t contrarian enough for you, bookmark us and head on over to WarrenBuffettPicks.com orWarrenBuffettStockPick.com. There you’ll find lots more contrarian information, strategies, and stories on investors that bucked conventional wisdom and marched to the beat of their own drum. Kinda like we do here at Black Swan Management, LLC.

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The Art of Not Losing Money

Follow these directions on your road to safety

Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1

Warren Buffett

Let’s take a moment and step away from technical analysis, stock tips, and high finance. Let’s talk about something that’s not quite as ‘sexy’ but is infinitely more important in your day-to-day dealings as an investor. Cash management and safety.

According to full-time trader and author Karl Denninger, “Return of capital is more important than return on capital. Put another way, the first rule of investing is “don’t lose money!” Everyone wants to chase a winner; this, unfortunately, is why most investors lose compared to the markets over time.”

The first thing an investor must master is The Art of Not Losing Money.

Most investors only focus on the possible gains to be made. Learning not to lose money sounds boring and we all want to make the big bucks when investing, but the fundamental skill that you must have as an investor is the ability to protect your capital and the patience to wait for the right opportunity in which to invest that capital. Any full-time trader (or professional gambler for that matter) will tell you that it’s fine to have the know-how, but if you don’t have a bankroll—you’re out of the game!

Most investment books and magazines will have plenty of articles about investment strategies, investment gurus, and investment advice. Few will tell you the naked truth—without something to invest, you will never be able to take advantage of the opportunities that come your way.

Karl Denninger feels that it’s “… fine to speculate with money you can afford to lose, but your core capital should never be exposed to a market that is trading on bubble economics unless you’re close to the door and can leave fast – and for most investors that’s not possible with their “long-term” funds. The key to long-term outperformance (the real goal in any such portfolio) is to STAY OUT during times like this, and take advantage of long-term (and deferred) tax advantages during periods when the markets are trading on fundamental value.”

Think about this for a minute: If you lose 50% in the market, you need to get a gain of 100% just to get back to even. How often will the market go up 100%? It will likely take many years. But, if you lose 20% in the market, it only takes a 25% gain to get back to even. 20% is still a lot, but a 25% rebound in the market is certainly a reasonable expectation and can be achieved in one year’s time.

The Oracle of Omaha

Managing your cash really boils down to discipline. Just remember that as an investor, your bankroll is your lifeblood. Without it you can’t invest – it doesn’t get any simpler than that. Despite this simple truth, many people don’t see mastering The Art of Not Losing Money as a skill of the same importance as being able to calculate ROI or analyze emerging markets. All the investment strategies and hot tips in the world don’t mean anything, though, if you don’t have money to invest.

About the Author

Anthony Sills, M.B.A. is a veteran of the financial services industry having formerly traded FOREX from the Atlanta Financial Center and worked for stock advisory services, brokerages, Fortune 100 companies, and national banks including Bank of America and Washington Mutual. Mr. Sills is currently a licensed loan officer and freelance writer. He is considered a FHA and FTHB expert as well as an authority on real estate investing. You can reach him at anthony@bettercredit101.com.